2009 Atlantic hurricane season is underway!

Time-lapse image of Hurricane Andrew, which slammed the Bahamas and southern Florida in 1992 causing $27-$34 billion in damage. Andrew was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history until 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit southeast Louisiana causing $100 billion in damage. (Nasa photo)

Obviously, I could be totally wrong, as I'm no psychic, but despite what meteorologists are forecasting--that it will be a lackluster hurricane season because of the weather phenomenon el Niño--I think we'll see two or three powerful storms with at least one of them pounding Florida moderately hard and another teasing the Gulf Coast.

Right now, we have two tropical storms over the Atlantic, Ana and Bill, and a new system that could become the season's fourth tropical depression has formed near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa.

At 5 p.m. EDT today, Bill was trailing Ana traveling westward at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Bill is expected to be stronger, larger and better formed than Ana, which is the first named storm of the 2009 season and moving westward at 17 mph with 40 mph winds.

It's too early to tell, but the current projected path of Ana puts it in the Caribbean over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, most of Cuba and Florida. Bill is expected to follow a similar path except a bit more to the north, missing most of Dominican Republic and Cuba.

The potential for what will likely turn into the season's first hurricane has been hindered by a powerful force: dry air, hurricane center meteorologist Mike Brennan said according to an ABC News report.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a division of the National Weather Service, is predicting a 50% probability of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 40% probability of a below-normal season, and a 10% probability of an above-normal season, attributing the forecast to the "calming effects" of el Niño--a weather pattern consisting of warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

“El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, states on the agency's website. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”

The NOAA now says there's a 70% chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one or two major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5). In May, the agency predicted nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven would become hurricanes with one to three reaching cat 3, 4 or 5. The average season comprises 11 named storms, six of them hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of them becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

At this time last year there were already five named storms in the Atlantic, Reuters reported.

"The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season," the NOAA points out on its website. "The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm."

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov 30, with most storms forming from August to October.

I wouldn't mind some action, though I'd rather no one get hurt. We'll see...

Sources: NHC, NOAA, ABC News
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